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SWQ Thunder vs Ipswich Knights — Queensland Premier League 2021

SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
FT
2 – 1
Ipswich Knights
Ipswich Knights
3/20/2021Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 2Clive Berghofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SWQ Thunder50%
×Draw20%
Ipswich Knights30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SWQ Thunder
2.29
Ipswich Knights
1.77

SWQ Thunder creates 29% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 20 away

creates per match

SWQ Thunder
1.98
Ipswich Knights
1.95

allows per match

SWQ Thunder
1.58
Ipswich Knights
2.60

finishing

SWQ Thunder+0.00on par
Ipswich Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SWQ Thunder ↓

Ipswich Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

SWQ Thunder or draw
70%
SWQ Thunder or Ipswich Knights
80%
Draw or Ipswich Knights
50%

Winning margin

SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
30%
Ipswich Knights wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
90%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
66%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
40%
Ipswich Knights 1+ goals
83%
Ipswich Knights 2+ goals
53%
Ipswich Knights 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
62%
Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SWQ Thunder at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

Ipswich Knights away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SWQ Thunder attack 1.98 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.29

Ipswich Knights attack 1.95 + SWQ Thunder defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SWQ Thunder scores more
50%
level
20%
Ipswich Knights scores more
30%

SWQ Thunder at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SWQ Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SWQ Thunder vs Ipswich Knights

SWQ Thunder beat Ipswich Knights 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Clive Berghofer Stadium in Toowoomba.