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Ipswich Knights vs SWQ Thunder — Queensland Premier League 2026

Ipswich Knights
Ipswich Knights
FT
1 – 2
SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
8/7/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 20Eric Evans Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ipswich Knights40%
×Draw21%
SWQ Thunder40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich Knights
2.01
SWQ Thunder
2.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 56 away

creates per match

Ipswich Knights
1.65
SWQ Thunder
1.77

allows per match

Ipswich Knights
2.25
SWQ Thunder
2.38

finishing

Ipswich Knights+0.00on par
SWQ Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich Knights ↓

SWQ Thunder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Ipswich Knights or draw
60%
Ipswich Knights or SWQ Thunder
79%
Draw or SWQ Thunder
60%

Winning margin

Ipswich Knights wins by 2+
22%
SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ipswich Knights 1+ goals
87%
Ipswich Knights 2+ goals
59%
Ipswich Knights 3+ goals
32%
SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
87%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
59%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)
50%
SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich Knights at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

SWQ Thunder away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich Knights attack 1.65 + SWQ Thunder defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.01

SWQ Thunder attack 1.77 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ipswich Knights scores more
40%
level
21%
SWQ Thunder scores more
40%

Ipswich Knights at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ipswich Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipswich Knights vs SWQ Thunder

SWQ Thunder beat Ipswich Knights 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Eric Evans Oval in Brisbane.