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SWQ Thunder vs Ipswich — Queensland Premier League 2026

SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
FT
4 – 0
Ipswich
Ipswich
3/2/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 2Clive Berghofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SWQ Thunder46%
×Draw23%
Ipswich30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SWQ Thunder
1.77
Ipswich
1.39

SWQ Thunder creates 27% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 31 away

creates per match

SWQ Thunder
1.98
Ipswich
1.19

allows per match

SWQ Thunder
1.58
Ipswich
1.55

finishing

SWQ Thunder+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SWQ Thunder ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SWQ Thunder or draw
70%
SWQ Thunder or Ipswich
77%
Draw or Ipswich
54%

Winning margin

SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
25%
Ipswich wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
83%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
53%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
26%
Ipswich 1+ goals
75%
Ipswich 2+ goals
40%
Ipswich 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
60%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SWQ Thunder at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SWQ Thunder attack 1.98 + Ipswich defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ipswich attack 1.19 + SWQ Thunder defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SWQ Thunder scores more
46%
level
23%
Ipswich scores more
30%

SWQ Thunder at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SWQ Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: SWQ Thunder 4–0 Ipswich

SWQ Thunder beat Ipswich 4-0 in Queensland Premier League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Clive Berghofer Stadium in Toowoomba.