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Ipswich vs SWQ Thunder — Queensland Premier League 2026

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
6/1/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 13Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ipswich43%
×Draw22%
SWQ Thunder35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.88
SWQ Thunder
1.68

Ipswich creates 12% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 56 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.39
SWQ Thunder
1.77

allows per match

Ipswich
1.58
SWQ Thunder
2.38

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
SWQ Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

SWQ Thunder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
65%
Ipswich or SWQ Thunder
78%
Draw or SWQ Thunder
57%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
23%
SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
85%
Ipswich 2+ goals
56%
Ipswich 3+ goals
29%
SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
81%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
50%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
55%
SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

SWQ Thunder away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.39 + SWQ Thunder defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.88

SWQ Thunder attack 1.77 + Ipswich defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ipswich scores more
43%
level
22%
SWQ Thunder scores more
35%

Ipswich at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipswich vs SWQ Thunder

Ipswich beat SWQ Thunder 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.