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SWQ Thunder vs Albany Creek — Queensland Premier League 2026

SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
FT
2 – 1
Albany Creek
Albany Creek
7/16/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 17Clive Berghofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SWQ Thunder43%
×Draw24%
Albany Creek33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SWQ Thunder
1.67
Albany Creek
1.43

SWQ Thunder creates 17% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 11 away

creates per match

SWQ Thunder
1.98
Albany Creek
1.27

allows per match

SWQ Thunder
1.58
Albany Creek
1.36

finishing

SWQ Thunder+0.00on par
Albany Creek+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SWQ Thunder ↓

Albany Creek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SWQ Thunder or draw
67%
SWQ Thunder or Albany Creek
76%
Draw or Albany Creek
57%

Winning margin

SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
22%
Albany Creek wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
81%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
50%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
23%
Albany Creek 1+ goals
76%
Albany Creek 2+ goals
42%
Albany Creek 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
57%
Albany Creek (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SWQ Thunder at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

Albany Creek away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SWQ Thunder attack 1.98 + Albany Creek defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.67

Albany Creek attack 1.27 + SWQ Thunder defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SWQ Thunder scores more
43%
level
24%
Albany Creek scores more
33%

SWQ Thunder at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SWQ Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SWQ Thunder vs Albany Creek

SWQ Thunder beat Albany Creek 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at Clive Berghofer Stadium in Toowoomba.