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Albany Creek vs SWQ Thunder — Queensland Premier League 2026

Albany Creek
Albany Creek
FT
1 – 0
SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
4/8/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 6Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Albany Creek44%
×Draw21%
SWQ Thunder34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albany Creek
2.01
SWQ Thunder
1.75

Albany Creek creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 56 away

creates per match

Albany Creek
1.64
SWQ Thunder
1.77

allows per match

Albany Creek
1.73
SWQ Thunder
2.38

finishing

Albany Creek+0.00on par
SWQ Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albany Creek ↓

SWQ Thunder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Albany Creek or draw
66%
Albany Creek or SWQ Thunder
79%
Draw or SWQ Thunder
56%

Winning margin

Albany Creek wins by 2+
25%
SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Albany Creek 1+ goals
87%
Albany Creek 2+ goals
59%
Albany Creek 3+ goals
32%
SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
83%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
52%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Albany Creek (draw refunded)
56%
SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albany Creek at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

SWQ Thunder away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albany Creek attack 1.64 + SWQ Thunder defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.01

SWQ Thunder attack 1.77 + Albany Creek defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Albany Creek scores more
44%
level
21%
SWQ Thunder scores more
34%

Albany Creek at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Albany Creek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Albany Creek 1–0 SWQ Thunder

Albany Creek beat SWQ Thunder 1-0 in Queensland Premier League on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Wolter Park in Brisbane.