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Switzerland vs Spain — Euro Championship 2024

Switzerland
Switzerland
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Spain
Spainadvanced
M. Gavranović 120+2' (pen)
X. Shaqiri 68'
Mikel Oyarzabal 120+9' (pen)
Gerard Moreno 120+7' (pen)
Daniel Olmo 120+3' (pen)
D. Zakaria 8' (OG)
7/2/2021Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Quarter-finalsSaint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Switzerland31%
×Draw24%
Spain45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland
1.31
Spain
1.63

Spain creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Switzerland
2.13
Spain
2.38

allows per match

Switzerland
0.88
Spain
0.50

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par
Spain+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Spain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw
55%
Switzerland or Spain
76%
Draw or Spain
69%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+
13%
Spain wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals
73%
Switzerland 2+ goals
38%
Switzerland 3+ goals
14%
Spain 1+ goals
80%
Spain 2+ goals
48%
Spain 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)
41%
Spain (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Spain away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.13 + Spain defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Spain attack 2.38 + Switzerland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Switzerland scores more
31%
level
24%
Spain scores more
45%

Spain at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Yann SommerSwitzerlandSwitzerland · G
8.9

Match Events

8'
D. ZakariaOwn goal
23'
R. Vargas← B. Embolo
46'
Daniel Olmo← Pablo Sarabia
54'
Gerard Moreno← Morata
67'
S. Widmer
68'
X. Shaqiri↳ R. Freuler
77'
R. Freuler
81'
D. Sow← X. Shaqiri
82'
M. Gavranović← H. Seferović
90+3'
A. Laporte
90+2'
C. Fassnacht← S. Zuber
90'
Mikel Oyarzabal← Ferran Torres
90+1'
Marcos Llorente← Koke
100'
F. Schär← D. Zakaria
100'
K. Mbabu← S. Widmer
113'
Thiago Alcântara← Pau Torres
119'
Rodri← Pedri
120+1'
M. Gavranovic
120+1'
Sergio BusquetsMissed penalty
120+2'
M. GavranovićPenalty
120+3'
Daniel OlmoPenalty
120+4'
F. SchärMissed penalty
120+5'
RodriMissed penalty
120+6'
M. AkanjiMissed penalty
120+7'
Gerard MorenoPenalty
120+8'
R. VargasMissed penalty
120+9'
Mikel OyarzabalPenalty

Possession

28%Switzerland

Shots

8Switzerland

Pass accuracy

44%Switzerland

Statistics

SwitzerlandSpain
Overview
28%Possession72%
8Total Shots28
9Corners13
15Fouls14
Shots
8Total Shots28
2On Target10
4Off Target8
2Blocked10
6Inside Box22
2Outside Box6
Passing
28%Possession72%
369Total Passes970
261Accurate Passes881
71%Pass Accuracy91%
Goalkeeping
10Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Switzerland vs Spain

Switzerland and Spain drew 1-1 in Euro Championship on July 2, 2021.

Goals: D. Zakaria (8' o.g.), X. Shaqiri (68'), M. Gavranović (120+2' pen), Daniel Olmo (120+3' pen), Gerard Moreno (120+7' pen), Mikel Oyarzabal (120+9' pen).

Spain controlled possession (72%) and registered 28 shots to 8.

The match was played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg.