Spain 1–2 Switzerland: Result & Stats

Spain

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Switzerland

Jordi Alba 55'

B. Embolo 58'

M. Akanji 21'

9/24/2022

UEFA Nations League · League A - 5Estadio de la Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Spain67%

×Draw18%

Switzerland14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpainExpected goals in this matchSwitzerland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

0.99

Spain

2.35

Switzerland

0.99

Spain creates 137% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

2.71

creates per match

0.90

1.07

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Spain

2.71

Switzerland

0.90

allows per match

Spain

1.07

Switzerland

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain+0.00on par

Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Switzerland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Spain or draw

86%

Spain or Switzerland

82%

Draw or Switzerland

33%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+

44%

Switzerland wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals

90%

Spain 2+ goals

68%

Spain 3+ goals

41%

Switzerland 1+ goals

63%

Switzerland 2+ goals

26%

Switzerland 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)

82%

Switzerland (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Switzerland away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.71 + Switzerland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Switzerland attack 0.90 + Spain defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Spain scores more

67%

level

18%

Switzerland scores more

14%

Spain at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Akanji

Switzerland · D

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Jonas Omlin

21'

M. Akanji↳ R. Vargas

44'

Manuel Akanji

46'

R. Steffen← R. Rodríguez

55'

Jordi Alba↳ Marco Asensio

58'

B. Embolo↳ M. Akanji

63'

Yeremy Pino← Ferran Torres

63'

Borja Iglesias← Marco Asensio

63'

Nico Williams← Pablo Sarabia

68'

D. Zakaria← D. Sow

68'

D. Ndoye← X. Shaqiri

70'

Marcos Llorente← Pedri

79'

M. Aebischer← R. Vargas

87'

Carlos Soler← César Azpilicueta

87'

H. Seferović← B. Embolo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpainSwitzerland

Overview

75%Possession25%

8Total Shots8

9Corners6

9Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots8

4On Target5

0Off Target2

4Blocked1

4Inside Box7

4Outside Box1

Passing

75%Possession25%

803Total Passes269

712Accurate Passes193

89%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5