Switzerland 2–0 Rep. Of Ireland: Result & Stats

Switzerland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rep. Of Ireland

S. Duffy 90+3' (OG)

H. Seferović 16'

10/15/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 8Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Switzerland62%

×Draw24%

Rep. Of Ireland14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwitzerlandExpected goals in this matchRep. Of Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.64

Switzerland

1.67

Rep. Of Ireland

0.64

Switzerland creates 161% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.13

creates per match

0.40

0.88

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Switzerland

2.13

Rep. Of Ireland

0.40

allows per match

Switzerland

0.88

Rep. Of Ireland

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw

86%

Switzerland or Rep. Of Ireland

76%

Draw or Rep. Of Ireland

38%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+

35%

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals

81%

Switzerland 2+ goals

50%

Switzerland 3+ goals

23%

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

47%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

14%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)

82%

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.13 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.40 + Switzerland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Switzerland scores more

62%

level

24%

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

14%

Switzerland at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

H. Seferović

Switzerland · F

7.7

Match Events

16'

H. Seferović↳ A. Mehmedi

28'

E. Fernandes← A. Mehmedi

32'

32'

34'

46'

46'

C. O'Dowda← J. Collins

55'

Jeff Hendrick

66'

Shane Duffy

69'

S. Hogan← A. Connolly

70'

R. Freuler← S. Lichtsteiner

76'

Séamus Coleman

76'

Séamus Coleman

88'

R. Steffen← B. Embolo

90+3'

S. DuffyOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwitzerlandRep.

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots9

8Corners5

10Fouls19

Shots

20Total Shots9

4On Target2

11Off Target3

5Blocked4

13Inside Box6

7Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

429Total Passes335

347Accurate Passes256

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls19

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2