Rep. Of Ireland 0–1 Switzerland: Result & Stats

Rep. Of Ireland

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Switzerland

X. Shaqiri 23'

3/26/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Aviva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rep. Of Ireland42%

×Draw28%

Switzerland30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rep. Of IrelandExpected goals in this matchSwitzerland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.02

Rep. Of Ireland

1.28

Switzerland

1.02

Rep. Of Ireland creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

1.65

creates per match

1.17

0.88

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Rep. Of Ireland

1.65

Switzerland

1.17

allows per match

Rep. Of Ireland

0.88

Switzerland

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rep. Of Ireland ↓

Switzerland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rep. Of Ireland or draw

70%

Rep. Of Ireland or Switzerland

72%

Draw or Switzerland

58%

Winning margin

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

19%

Switzerland wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

72%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

37%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

14%

Switzerland 1+ goals

64%

Switzerland 2+ goals

27%

Switzerland 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

59%

Switzerland (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rep. Of Ireland at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Switzerland away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rep. Of Ireland attack 1.65 + Switzerland defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.28

Switzerland attack 1.17 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

42%

level

28%

Switzerland scores more

30%

Rep. Of Ireland at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

N. Elvedi

Switzerland · D

7.3

Match Events

23'

X. Shaqiri

46'

R. Freuler← G. Xhaka

57'

M. Doherty← A. Omobamidele

57'

A. Idah← M. Johnston

57'

W. Smallbone← J. Knight

59'

Silvan Widmer

65'

D. Zakaria← V. Sierro

65'

D. Kutesa← D. Ndoye

65'

K. Mbabu← S. Widmer

75'

Nico Elvedi

76'

N. Okafor← X. Shaqiri

79'

M. Sykes← S. Szmodics

79'

C. O'Dowda← R. Brady

80'

B. Omeragić← F. Schär

85'

Séamus Coleman

87'

F. Azaz← J. Cullen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Rep.Switzerland

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots8

4Corners3

8Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots8

1On Target3

5Off Target3

2Blocked2

7Inside Box3

1Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

469Total Passes508

387Accurate Passes435

83%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0