Switzerland 2–1 Greece: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Switzerland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Greece

R. Vargas 51'

S. Zuber 7'

V. Pavlidis 34'

9/1/2021

Friendlies · Friendlies 1St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Switzerland58%

×Draw22%

Greece20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwitzerlandExpected goals in this matchGreece

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.07

Switzerland

1.97

Greece

1.07

Switzerland creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.67

creates per match

1.07

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Switzerland

2.67

Greece

1.07

allows per match

Switzerland

1.07

Greece

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par

Greece+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Greece →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw

80%

Switzerland or Greece

78%

Draw or Greece

42%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+

34%

Greece wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals

86%

Switzerland 2+ goals

58%

Switzerland 3+ goals

31%

Greece 1+ goals

66%

Greece 2+ goals

29%

Greece 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)

74%

Greece (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Greece away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.67 + Greece defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.97

Greece attack 1.07 + Switzerland defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Switzerland scores more

58%

level

22%

Greece scores more

20%

Switzerland at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

S. Zuber↳ S. Widmer

34'

V. Pavlidis↳ A. Bakasetas

46'

U. Garcia← S. Widmer

46'

R. Vargas← E. Cömert

46'

J. Lotomba← R. Rodríguez

46'

M. Aebischer← D. Sow

46'

D. Giannoulis← K. Tsimikas

46'

E. Siopis← A. Bouchalakis

51'

R. Vargas↳ S. Zuber

64'

C. Fassnacht← S. Zuber

65'

P. Mantalos← A. Bakasetas

65'

K. Papadopoulos← P. Chatzidiakos

69'

Petros Mantalos

69'

A. Zeqiri← H. Seferović

70'

A. Douvikas← V. Pavlidis

78'

M. Saliakas← T. Androutsos

80'

Konstantinos Mavropanos

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SwitzerlandGreece

Overview

49%Possession51%

5Total Shots9

4Corners4

14Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots9

4On Target3

1Off Target6

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1