Greece 0–1 Switzerland: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Greece

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Switzerland

B. Džemaili 59'

3/23/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Spiros Louis Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Greece42%

×Draw29%

Switzerland29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GreeceExpected goals in this matchSwitzerland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.96

Greece

1.21

Switzerland

0.96

Greece creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.50

creates per match

1.17

0.75

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Greece

1.50

Switzerland

1.17

allows per match

Greece

0.75

Switzerland

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greece+0.00on par

Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece ↓

Switzerland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Greece or draw

71%

Greece or Switzerland

71%

Draw or Switzerland

58%

Winning margin

Greece wins by 2+

18%

Switzerland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Greece 1+ goals

70%

Greece 2+ goals

34%

Greece 3+ goals

12%

Switzerland 1+ goals

62%

Switzerland 2+ goals

25%

Switzerland 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Greece (draw refunded)

59%

Switzerland (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Switzerland away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece attack 1.50 + Switzerland defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Switzerland attack 1.17 + Greece defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Greece scores more

42%

level

29%

Switzerland scores more

29%

Greece at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Greece will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Sokratis

59'

B. Džemaili↳ H. Seferović

60'

M. Gavranović← H. Seferović

61'

M. Lang← S. Lichtsteiner

61'

S. Zuber← R. Freuler

61'

G. Fernandes← V. Behrami

63'

M. Bakakis← A. Donis

63'

L. Christodoulopoulos← V. Torosidis

73'

D. Kourmpelis← A. Samaris

73'

E. Koulouris← K. Mitroglou

73'

D. Oberlin← B. Embolo

77'

D. Pelkas← K. Fortounis

79'

K. Stafylidis← K. Manolas

80'

F. Frei← R. Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Statistics

GreeceSwitzerland

Overview

49%Possession51%

4Total Shots8

5Corners3

18Fouls16

Shots

4Total Shots8

1On Target3

3Off Target5

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls16

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1