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Switzerland vs Georgia — Euro Championship 2024

Switzerland
Switzerland
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Georgia
Georgia
C. Itten 77'
11/15/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 9Kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Switzerland69%
×Draw18%
Georgia13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland
2.40
Georgia
0.94

Switzerland creates 155% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Switzerland
2.13
Georgia
1.00

allows per match

Switzerland
0.88
Georgia
2.67

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par
Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw
87%
Switzerland or Georgia
82%
Draw or Georgia
31%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+
47%
Georgia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals
91%
Switzerland 2+ goals
69%
Switzerland 3+ goals
42%
Georgia 1+ goals
61%
Georgia 2+ goals
24%
Georgia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)
84%
Georgia (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Georgia away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.13 + Georgia defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.40

Georgia attack 1.00 + Switzerland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Switzerland scores more
69%
level
18%
Georgia scores more
13%

Switzerland at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
G. XhakaSwitzerlandSwitzerland · M
8.4

Match Events

29'
Davit Khocholava
31'
Jaba Kankava
71'
C. Itten← A. Ajeti
74'
Renato Steffen
77'
C. Itten↳ D. Zakaria
78'
C. Fassnacht← R. Vargas
83'
E. Lobjanidze← G. Kvilitaia
84'
D. Sow← E. Fernandes
85'
V. Gvilia← Z. Davitashvili
85'
G. Papunashvili← O. Kiteishvili

Possession

68%Switzerland

Shots

23Switzerland

Pass accuracy

52%Switzerland

Statistics

SwitzerlandGeorgia
Overview
68%Possession32%
23Total Shots14
9Corners1
12Fouls15
Shots
23Total Shots14
11On Target5
5Off Target5
7Blocked4
10Inside Box3
13Outside Box11
Passing
68%Possession32%
703Total Passes332
635Accurate Passes275
90%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
5Saves9
Discipline
12Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
4Offsides1

Euro Championship: Switzerland 1–0 Georgia

Switzerland beat Georgia 1-0 in Euro Championship on November 15, 2019.

Goals: C. Itten (77').

Switzerland controlled possession (68%) and registered 23 shots to 14.

The match was played at Kybunpark in St. Gallen.