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Georgia vs Switzerland — Euro Championship 2024

Georgia
Georgia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Switzerland
Switzerland
D. Zakaria 80'
S. Zuber 56'
3/23/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Georgia39%
×Draw32%
Switzerland29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia
1.01
Switzerland
0.82

Georgia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Georgia
0.88
Switzerland
1.14

allows per match

Georgia
0.50
Switzerland
1.14

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par
Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

Switzerland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Georgia or draw
71%
Georgia or Switzerland
68%
Draw or Switzerland
61%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+
15%
Switzerland wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals
64%
Georgia 2+ goals
27%
Georgia 3+ goals
8%
Switzerland 1+ goals
56%
Switzerland 2+ goals
20%
Switzerland 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)
58%
Switzerland (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Switzerland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 0.88 + Switzerland defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Switzerland attack 1.14 + Georgia defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Georgia scores more
39%
level
32%
Switzerland scores more
29%

Georgia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
M. AkanjiSwitzerlandSwitzerland · D
7.9

Match Events

56'
S. Zuber↳ B. Embolo
61'
A. Ajeti← M. Gavranović
62'
S. Kverkvelia← J. Tabidze
70'
Nika Kvekveskiri
73'
S. Lobzhanidze← G. Kvilitaia
76'
Davit Khocholava
80'
D. Zakaria
83'
N. Katcharava← J. Ananidze
84'
R. Steffen← B. Embolo
89'
Granit Xhaka
89'
D. Sow← R. Freuler
90'
Valeriane Gviliia

Possession

35%Georgia

Shots

6Georgia

Pass accuracy

47%Georgia

Statistics

GeorgiaSwitzerland
Overview
35%Possession65%
6Total Shots25
2Corners9
15Fouls7
Shots
6Total Shots25
1On Target8
4Off Target7
1Blocked10
3Inside Box19
3Outside Box6
Passing
35%Possession65%
330Total Passes612
251Accurate Passes522
76%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls7
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Euro Championship: Georgia 0–2 Switzerland

Switzerland beat Georgia 2-0 in Euro Championship on March 23, 2019.

Goals: S. Zuber (56'), D. Zakaria (80').

Switzerland controlled possession (65%) and registered 25 shots to 6.

The match was played at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi.