Switzerland U19 3–0 San Marino U19: Result & Stats

Switzerland U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Marino U19

A. Vasovic 90'

D. da Silva 69'

E. Rufener 21'

11/15/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Switzerland U1974%

×Draw15%

San Marino U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Switzerland U19Expected goals in this matchSan Marino U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.76

0.99

Switzerland U19

2.76

San Marino U19

0.99

Switzerland U19 creates 179% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.27

creates per match

0.25

1.73

allows per match

4.25

creates per match

Switzerland U19

1.27

San Marino U19

0.25

allows per match

Switzerland U19

1.73

San Marino U19

4.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland U19+0.00on par

San Marino U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U19 ↓

San Marino U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Switzerland U19 or draw

89%

Switzerland U19 or San Marino U19

85%

Draw or San Marino U19

26%

Winning margin

Switzerland U19 wins by 2+

53%

San Marino U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Switzerland U19 1+ goals

94%

Switzerland U19 2+ goals

76%

Switzerland U19 3+ goals

51%

San Marino U19 1+ goals

63%

San Marino U19 2+ goals

26%

San Marino U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)

87%

San Marino U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U19 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

San Marino U19 away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U19 attack 1.27 + San Marino U19 defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 2.76

San Marino U19 attack 0.25 + Switzerland U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Switzerland U19 scores more

74%

level

15%

San Marino U19 scores more

11%

Switzerland U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Switzerland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

34'

40'

46'

62'

62'

M. Akahomen← G. Stork

65'

F. Guidi← A. Colombini

65'

F. Valentini← G. Grandoni

69'

D. da Silva

76'

E. Aguilar← M. Miguel

76'

A. Vasovic← D. Cakolli

79'

L. Pennacchini← L. Pasolini

79'

S. Forcellini← G. Montali

83'

I. Parra

87'

L. Giordani← G. Molinari

90'

A. Vasovic

Switzerland

San

1

Cenci

3

Stefani

6

Marani

2

▼

Montali

5

▼

Colombini

4

▼

Molinari

17

▼

10

13

11

9

▼

Grandoni

1

Huwiler

4

Bein

5

▼

Stork

2

Camara

23

⚽

Silva

20

Tchamda

6

⚽

▼

Rufener

14

Peverelli

18

▼

Miguel

22

▼

Kabashi

9

▼

Cakolli

Manager: M. Rizzo

46'▲Z. Tairi←▼E. Rufener

62'▲I. Parra←▼L. Kabashi

62'▲M. Akahomen←▼G. Stork

76'▲E. Aguilar←▼M. Miguel

76'▲A. Vasovic←▼D. Cakolli

Switzerland U19 substitutes

21Hoch3Ademi7Aguilar8Parra10Tairi11Vasovic16Etoski17Volken19Akahomen

Manager: N. Cancelli

65'▲F. Guidi←▼A. Colombini

65'▲F. Valentini←▼G. Grandoni

79'▲L. Pennacchini←▼L. Pasolini

79'▲S. Forcellini←▼G. Montali

87'▲L. Giordani←▼G. Molinari

San Marino U19 substitutes

12Balda7Guidi8Giordani14Raschi15Valentini16Pennacchini18Bucchi19Forcellini20Mularoni

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Switzerland U19 3–0 San Marino U19

Switzerland U19 beat San Marino U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2025.

Goals: E. Rufener (21'), D. da Silva (69'), A. Vasovic (90').

Switzerland U19 vs San Marino U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Switzerland U19 3–0 San Marino U19