San Marino U19 0–4 Switzerland U19: Result & Stats

San Marino U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Switzerland U19

J. Parente 37'

D. Derbaci 35', 16'

A. Romano 27' (pen)

10/15/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Järvenpää TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

San Marino U196%

×Draw14%

Switzerland U1979%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Marino U19Expected goals in this matchSwitzerland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.54

2.46

San Marino U19

0.54

Switzerland U19

2.46

Switzerland U19 creates 356% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

0.00

creates per match

1.92

3.00

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

San Marino U19

0.00

Switzerland U19

1.92

allows per match

San Marino U19

3.00

Switzerland U19

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Marino U19+0.00on par

Switzerland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marino U19 ↓

Switzerland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–112%

0–215%

0–313%

0–48%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

San Marino U19 or draw

21%

San Marino U19 or Switzerland U19

86%

Draw or Switzerland U19

94%

Winning margin

San Marino U19 wins by 2+

1%

Switzerland U19 wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

San Marino U19 1+ goals

42%

San Marino U19 2+ goals

10%

San Marino U19 3+ goals

2%

Switzerland U19 1+ goals

91%

Switzerland U19 2+ goals

70%

Switzerland U19 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

San Marino U19 (draw refunded)

7%

Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marino U19 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Switzerland U19 away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marino U19 attack 0.00 + Switzerland U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.54

Switzerland U19 attack 1.92 + San Marino U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

San Marino U19 scores more

6%

level

14%

Switzerland U19 scores more

79%

Switzerland U19 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Switzerland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

D. Derbaci

20'

C. Meloni

27'

A. RomanoPenalty

35'

D. Derbaci

37'

J. Parente

46'

L. Pasolini← L. Bugli

54'

T. Cervellini

57'

C. Tsawa← D. Xhemalija

57'

F. Lentini← J. Parente

64'

A. Mularoni← G. Capicchioni

64'

P. Marinucci← F. Domeniconi

78'

78'

80'

80'

80'

90'

T. Bindi← Filippo Valentini II

San

Switzerland

1

22

19

18

5

10

⚽

▼

Parente

8

⚽

Romano

6

▼

Xhemalija

16

⚽2

Derbaci

9

▼

Boteli

23

▼

Greco

12

Hoël

16

▼

3

5

4

17

7

8

▼

Bugli

13

Meloni

11

▼

Capicchio

19

▼

II

Manager: N. Cancelli

46'▲L. Pasolini←▼L. Bugli

64'▲A. Mularoni←▼G. Capicchioni

64'▲P. Marinucci←▼F. Domeniconi

90'▲T. Bindi←▼Filippo Valentini II

San Marino U19 substitutes

15Pasolini14Mularoni6Marinucci2Bindi18I1Casadei9Protti20Forcellini

Manager: M. Rizzo

57'▲C. Tsawa←▼D. Xhemalija

57'▲F. Lentini←▼J. Parente

78'▲F. Tsimba←▼W. Boteli

78'▲R. Londja←▼M. Greco

Switzerland U19 substitutes

20Tsawa7Lentini11Tsimba17Londja14Konietzke4Jetzer12Aubert2Rizzo3Smith

Match Recap: San Marino U19 vs Switzerland U19

Switzerland U19 beat San Marino U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 15, 2024.

Goals: D. Derbaci (16', 35'), A. Romano (27' pen), J. Parente (37').

The match was played at Järvenpää TN in Järvenpää.

San Marino U19 vs Switzerland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Marino U19 vs Switzerland U19