Switzerland U19 0–1 Finland U19: Result & Stats

Switzerland U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Finland U19

D. Ezeh 75'

10/9/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Switzerland U1929%

×Draw24%

Finland U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Switzerland U19Expected goals in this matchFinland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.65

Switzerland U19

1.26

Finland U19

1.65

Finland U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

1.27

creates per match

1.56

1.73

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Switzerland U19

1.27

Finland U19

1.56

allows per match

Switzerland U19

1.73

Finland U19

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Switzerland U19+0.00on par

Finland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U19 ↓

Finland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Switzerland U19 or draw

54%

Switzerland U19 or Finland U19

76%

Draw or Finland U19

71%

Winning margin

Switzerland U19 wins by 2+

12%

Finland U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Switzerland U19 1+ goals

72%

Switzerland U19 2+ goals

36%

Switzerland U19 3+ goals

13%

Finland U19 1+ goals

81%

Finland U19 2+ goals

49%

Finland U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U19 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Finland U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U19 attack 1.27 + Finland U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Finland U19 attack 1.56 + Switzerland U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Switzerland U19 scores more

29%

level

24%

Finland U19 scores more

46%

Finland U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Finland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

J. Lahteenmaki

58'

C. Tsawa← D. Xhemalija

58'

F. Tsimba← W. Boteli

72'

F. Lentini← C. Konietzke

72'

R. Londja← M. Greco

72'

E. Vauhkonen← D. Nzoko

75'

D. Ezeh

77'

D. Derbaci← J. Parente

82'

O. Helen← D. Ezeh

87'

F. Lentini

90+5'

L. Srdanovic

90+5'

E. Toivonen

90+4'

I. Mendolin← P. Mentu

Switzerland

Finland

1

2

5

15

14

10

6

21

▼

Mentu

11

Lähteenmä

20

⚽

▼

Ezeh

17

▼

1

3

22

19

4

10

▼

Parente

8

Romano

6

▼

Xhemalija

14

▼

Konietzke

9

▼

Boteli

23

▼

Greco

Manager: M. Rizzo

58'▲C. Tsawa←▼D. Xhemalija

58'▲F. Tsimba←▼W. Boteli

72'▲F. Lentini←▼C. Konietzke

72'▲R. Londja←▼M. Greco

77'▲D. Derbaci←▼J. Parente

Switzerland U19 substitutes

20Tsawa11Tsimba7Lentini17Londja16Derbaci5Meili18Schreiber12Aubert2Rizzo

Manager: P. Lundberg

72'▲E. Vauhkonen←▼D. Nzoko

82'▲O. Helen←▼D. Ezeh

90+4'▲I. Mendolin←▼P. Mentu

Finland U19 substitutes

19Vauhkonen9Helen8Mendolin4Saarela12Vuorjoki16Paananen3Nurmi18Huovila

Match Recap: Switzerland U19 vs Finland U19

Finland U19 beat Switzerland U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 9, 2024.

Goals: D. Ezeh (75').

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.

Switzerland U19 vs Finland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Switzerland U19 vs Finland U19