Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Finland U19 vs Switzerland U19 — Friendlies 2018

Finland U19
Finland U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Switzerland U19
Switzerland U19
M. Kirilov 63'
9/9/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Finland U1947%
×Draw20%
Switzerland U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finland U19
2.38
Switzerland U19
2.00

Finland U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Finland U19
2.50
Switzerland U19
3.00

allows per match

Finland U19
1.00
Switzerland U19
2.25

finishing

Finland U19+0.00on par
Switzerland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U19 ↓

Switzerland U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Finland U19 or draw
67%
Finland U19 or Switzerland U19
80%
Draw or Switzerland U19
53%

Winning margin

Finland U19 wins by 2+
28%
Switzerland U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Finland U19 1+ goals
91%
Finland U19 2+ goals
68%
Finland U19 3+ goals
42%
Switzerland U19 1+ goals
86%
Switzerland U19 2+ goals
59%
Switzerland U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Finland U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland U19 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Switzerland U19 away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland U19 attack 2.50 + Switzerland U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Switzerland U19 attack 3.00 + Finland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Finland U19 scores more
47%
level
20%
Switzerland U19 scores more
33%

Finland U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Finland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
M. Kirilov
Finland
Switzerland
P. Lundberg
Manager: P. Lundberg
M. Rizzo
Manager: M. Rizzo

Match Recap: Finland U19 vs Switzerland U19

Finland U19 beat Switzerland U19 1-0 in Friendlies on September 9, 2025.

Goals: M. Kirilov (63').