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Swit vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Swit
Swit
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
4/26/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Swit51%
×Draw23%
Sokół Aleksandrów26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swit
1.80
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.23

Swit creates 46% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 52 away

creates per match

Swit
1.90
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Swit
1.32
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Swit+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swit ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Swit or draw
74%
Swit or Sokół Aleksandrów
77%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
49%

Winning margin

Swit wins by 2+
28%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Swit 1+ goals
83%
Swit 2+ goals
54%
Swit 3+ goals
27%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
71%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
35%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Swit (draw refunded)
66%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swit at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swit attack 1.90 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Swit defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Swit scores more
51%
level
23%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
26%

Swit at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swit vs Sokół Aleksandrów

Swit beat Sokół Aleksandrów 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki.