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Sokół Aleksandrów vs Swit — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
FT
1 – 2
Swit
Swit
9/28/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów34%
×Draw25%
Swit41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.35
Swit
1.52

Swit creates 13% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 103 away

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08
Swit
1.55

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Swit
1.61

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par
Swit+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Swit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw
59%
Sokół Aleksandrów or Swit
75%
Draw or Swit
66%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
15%
Swit wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
74%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
39%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
15%
Swit 1+ goals
78%
Swit 2+ goals
45%
Swit 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
45%
Swit (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Swit away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Swit defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

Swit attack 1.55 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
34%
level
25%
Swit scores more
41%

Swit at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Sokół Aleksandrów 1–2 Swit

Swit beat Sokół Aleksandrów 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.