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Swit vs Concordia Elbląg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Swit
Swit
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
9/30/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Swit61%
×Draw20%
Concordia Elbląg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swit
2.23
Concordia Elbląg
1.18

Swit creates 89% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 51 away

creates per match

Swit
1.90
Concordia Elbląg
1.04

allows per match

Swit
1.32
Concordia Elbląg
2.57

finishing

Swit+0.00on par
Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swit ↓

Concordia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Swit or draw
81%
Swit or Concordia Elbląg
80%
Draw or Concordia Elbląg
39%

Winning margin

Swit wins by 2+
38%
Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Swit 1+ goals
89%
Swit 2+ goals
65%
Swit 3+ goals
38%
Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
69%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
33%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Swit (draw refunded)
76%
Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swit at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swit attack 1.90 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.23

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Swit defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Swit scores more
61%
level
20%
Concordia Elbląg scores more
19%

Swit at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Swit 6–0 Concordia Elbląg

Swit beat Concordia Elbląg 6-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki.