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Concordia Elbląg vs Swit — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
FT
2 – 1
Swit
Swit
4/27/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Concordia Elbląg37%
×Draw25%
Swit39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Elbląg
1.45
Swit
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 103 away

creates per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.29
Swit
1.55

allows per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.45
Swit
1.61

finishing

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par
Swit+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Elbląg ↓

Swit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Concordia Elbląg or draw
61%
Concordia Elbląg or Swit
75%
Draw or Swit
63%

Winning margin

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
17%
Swit wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
77%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
42%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
18%
Swit 1+ goals
78%
Swit 2+ goals
44%
Swit 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
49%
Swit (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Elbląg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Swit away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.29 + Swit defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Swit attack 1.55 + Concordia Elbląg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Concordia Elbląg scores more
37%
level
25%
Swit scores more
39%

Swit at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Concordia Elbląg 2–1 Swit

Concordia Elbląg beat Swit 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Elbląg.