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Swit vs Błonianka Błonie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Swit
Swit
FT
1 – 2
Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
3/13/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Swit47%
×Draw23%
Błonianka Błonie30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swit
1.76
Błonianka Błonie
1.35

Swit creates 30% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 52 away

creates per match

Swit
1.90
Błonianka Błonie
1.37

allows per match

Swit
1.32
Błonianka Błonie
1.63

finishing

Swit+0.00on par
Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swit ↓

Błonianka Błonie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Swit or draw
70%
Swit or Błonianka Błonie
77%
Draw or Błonianka Błonie
53%

Winning margin

Swit wins by 2+
25%
Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Swit 1+ goals
83%
Swit 2+ goals
52%
Swit 3+ goals
26%
Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
74%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
39%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Swit (draw refunded)
61%
Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swit at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

Błonianka Błonie away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swit attack 1.90 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.76

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.37 + Swit defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Swit scores more
47%
level
23%
Błonianka Błonie scores more
30%

Swit at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swit vs Błonianka Błonie

Błonianka Błonie beat Swit 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki.