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Błonianka Błonie vs Swit — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
FT
1 – 0
Swit
Swit
4/2/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stadion Błonianka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Błonianka Błonie38%
×Draw23%
Swit39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Błonianka Błonie
1.67
Swit
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 103 away

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.73
Swit
1.55

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.85
Swit
1.61

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par
Swit+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Swit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw
61%
Błonianka Błonie or Swit
77%
Draw or Swit
62%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
19%
Swit wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
81%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
50%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
23%
Swit 1+ goals
82%
Swit 2+ goals
51%
Swit 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
49%
Swit (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Swit away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Swit defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.67

Swit attack 1.55 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more
38%
level
23%
Swit scores more
39%

Swit at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Błonianka Błonie 1–0 Swit

Błonianka Błonie beat Swit 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Błonianka in Błonie.