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Świt Skolwin vs Sokół Kleczew — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Sokół Kleczew
Sokół Kleczew
8/4/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion Miejski Skolwin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Świt Skolwin55%
×Draw23%
Sokół Kleczew23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świt Skolwin
1.86
Sokół Kleczew
1.11

Świt Skolwin creates 68% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 84 away

creates per match

Świt Skolwin
2.26
Sokół Kleczew
1.48

allows per match

Świt Skolwin
0.74
Sokół Kleczew
1.46

finishing

Świt Skolwin+0.00on par
Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świt Skolwin ↓

Sokół Kleczew →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Świt Skolwin or draw
77%
Świt Skolwin or Sokół Kleczew
77%
Draw or Sokół Kleczew
45%

Winning margin

Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
31%
Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
84%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
55%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
28%
Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals
67%
Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals
30%
Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
71%
Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świt Skolwin at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 69 matches

Sokół Kleczew away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.46 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świt Skolwin attack 2.26 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.48 + Świt Skolwin defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Świt Skolwin scores more
55%
level
23%
Sokół Kleczew scores more
23%

Świt Skolwin at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Świt Skolwin vs Sokół Kleczew

Świt Skolwin and Sokół Kleczew drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Skolwin in Szczecin.