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Sokół Kleczew vs Świt Skolwin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Sokół Kleczew
Sokół Kleczew
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
11/25/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Sokół Kleczew38%
×Draw25%
Świt Skolwin37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Kleczew
1.48
Świt Skolwin
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.88
Świt Skolwin
1.59

allows per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.31
Świt Skolwin
1.09

finishing

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par
Świt Skolwin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Kleczew ↓

Świt Skolwin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sokół Kleczew or draw
63%
Sokół Kleczew or Świt Skolwin
75%
Draw or Świt Skolwin
62%

Winning margin

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+
18%
Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals
77%
Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals
43%
Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals
19%
Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
77%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
42%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)
51%
Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Kleczew at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Świt Skolwin away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.88 + Świt Skolwin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.48

Świt Skolwin attack 1.59 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sokół Kleczew scores more
38%
level
25%
Świt Skolwin scores more
37%

Sokół Kleczew at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sokół Kleczew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Sokół Kleczew 2–2 Świt Skolwin

Sokół Kleczew and Świt Skolwin drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kleczew.