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Świt Skolwin vs Polonia Środa — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Polonia Środa
Polonia Środa
4/23/2022III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Stadion Miejski Skolwin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Świt Skolwin53%
×Draw22%
Polonia Środa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świt Skolwin
1.90
Polonia Środa
1.24

Świt Skolwin creates 53% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 101 away

creates per match

Świt Skolwin
2.26
Polonia Środa
1.74

allows per match

Świt Skolwin
0.74
Polonia Środa
1.54

finishing

Świt Skolwin+0.00on par
Polonia Środa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świt Skolwin ↓

Polonia Środa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Świt Skolwin or draw
75%
Świt Skolwin or Polonia Środa
78%
Draw or Polonia Środa
47%

Winning margin

Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
30%
Polonia Środa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
85%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
56%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
29%
Polonia Środa 1+ goals
71%
Polonia Środa 2+ goals
35%
Polonia Środa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
68%
Polonia Środa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świt Skolwin at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 69 matches

Polonia Środa away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.54 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świt Skolwin attack 2.26 + Polonia Środa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.90

Polonia Środa attack 1.74 + Świt Skolwin defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Świt Skolwin scores more
53%
level
22%
Polonia Środa scores more
25%

Świt Skolwin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Świt Skolwin 2–0 Polonia Środa

Świt Skolwin beat Polonia Środa 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Skolwin in Szczecin.