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Polonia Środa vs Świt Skolwin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Polonia Środa
Polonia Środa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
11/18/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Polonia Środa37%
×Draw24%
Świt Skolwin39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Środa
1.52
Świt Skolwin
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 66 away

creates per match

Polonia Środa
1.94
Świt Skolwin
1.59

allows per match

Polonia Środa
1.51
Świt Skolwin
1.09

finishing

Polonia Środa+0.00on par
Świt Skolwin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Środa ↓

Świt Skolwin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Polonia Środa or draw
61%
Polonia Środa or Świt Skolwin
76%
Draw or Świt Skolwin
63%

Winning margin

Polonia Środa wins by 2+
18%
Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Polonia Środa 1+ goals
78%
Polonia Środa 2+ goals
45%
Polonia Środa 3+ goals
20%
Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
79%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
46%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Polonia Środa (draw refunded)
49%
Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Środa at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.51 · 102 matches

Świt Skolwin away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Środa attack 1.94 + Świt Skolwin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.52

Świt Skolwin attack 1.59 + Polonia Środa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Polonia Środa scores more
37%
level
24%
Świt Skolwin scores more
39%

Świt Skolwin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Środa vs Świt Skolwin

Polonia Środa beat Świt Skolwin 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej in Środa Wielkopolska.