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Świt Skolwin vs Elana Toruń — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
FT
1 – 0
Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
6/12/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Stadion Miejski Skolwin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Świt Skolwin52%
×Draw24%
Elana Toruń25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świt Skolwin
1.76
Elana Toruń
1.15

Świt Skolwin creates 53% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 78 away

creates per match

Świt Skolwin
2.26
Elana Toruń
1.55

allows per match

Świt Skolwin
0.74
Elana Toruń
1.27

finishing

Świt Skolwin+0.00on par
Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świt Skolwin ↓

Elana Toruń →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Świt Skolwin or draw
75%
Świt Skolwin or Elana Toruń
76%
Draw or Elana Toruń
48%

Winning margin

Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
28%
Elana Toruń wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
83%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
52%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
26%
Elana Toruń 1+ goals
68%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
32%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
67%
Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świt Skolwin at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 69 matches

Elana Toruń away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świt Skolwin attack 2.26 + Elana Toruń defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.76

Elana Toruń attack 1.55 + Świt Skolwin defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Świt Skolwin scores more
52%
level
24%
Elana Toruń scores more
25%

Świt Skolwin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Świt Skolwin 1–0 Elana Toruń

Świt Skolwin beat Elana Toruń 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Skolwin in Szczecin.