Elana Toruń vs Świt Skolwin — III Liga - Group 2 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 66+ matches
Elana Toruń37%
Świt Skolwin37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 77 home / 66 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Elana Toruń ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Elana Toruń at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches
Świt Skolwin away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Elana Toruń attack 1.60 + Świt Skolwin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35
Świt Skolwin attack 1.59 + Elana Toruń defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Elana Toruń at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Elana Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Luzino
Polonia Środa
Lipno Stęszew
Lech Poznań II
Noteć Czarnków
Flota ŚwinoujścieElana Toruń
Wda Świecie
Unia Swarzędz
Kluczevia Stargard
Stargard Szczeciński
Victoria Września
Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
Cartusia Kartuzy
Tłuchowia
Wybrzeże Rewalskie RewalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Elana Toruń host Świt Skolwin on Saturday, 2 April 2022 at 16:00. The match is part of the III Liga - Group 2 2020/2021 season.
Elana Toruń face Świt Skolwin (III Liga - Group 2)
III Liga - Group 2 returns with Elana Toruń hosting Świt Skolwin. Match starts April 2, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Elana Toruń host Świt Skolwin at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.