Swindon Town 2–0 Walsall: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Walsall

R. Hepburn-Murphy 88'

C. Austin 2'

9/16/2023

League Two · Round 8The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Swindon Town33%

×Draw24%

Walsall43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.63

Swindon Town

1.41

Walsall

1.63

Walsall creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.62

creates per match

1.78

1.48

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.62

Walsall

1.78

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.48

Walsall

1.20

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.24scores more

Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

57%

Swindon Town or Walsall

76%

Draw or Walsall

67%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

15%

Walsall wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

76%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

41%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

17%

Walsall 1+ goals

80%

Walsall 2+ goals

48%

Walsall 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

44%

Walsall (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.48 · 14 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.62 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Walsall attack 1.78 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Swindon Town scores more

33%

level

24%

Walsall scores more

43%

Walsall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

F. Blake-Tracy

Swindon Town · D

8.7

Match Events

2'

25'

36'

61'

62'

66'

66'

67'

R. Hepburn-Murphy← C. Austin

71'

D. James-Taylor← F. Draper

80'

80'

81'

88'

90+4'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonWalsall

Overview

66%Possession34%

12Total Shots7

4Corners2

5Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots7

6On Target2

6Off Target3

0Blocked2

6Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

638Total Passes324

572Accurate Passes236

90%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2