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Swindon Town vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Walsall
Walsall
E. Iandolo 33'
E. Monthe 90+4'
R. Hutton 45+1' (OG)
12/26/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 23The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Swindon Town33%
×Draw24%
Walsall43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.41
Walsall
1.63

Walsall creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.62
Walsall
1.78

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.48
Walsall
1.20

finishing

Swindon Town+0.24scores more
Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
57%
Swindon Town or Walsall
76%
Draw or Walsall
67%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
15%
Walsall wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
76%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
41%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
17%
Walsall 1+ goals
80%
Walsall 2+ goals
48%
Walsall 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
44%
Walsall (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.48 · 14 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.62 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Walsall attack 1.78 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Swindon Town scores more
33%
level
24%
Walsall scores more
43%

Walsall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
L. KinsellaWalsallWalsall · M
7.9

Match Events

33'
E. Iandolo
45+1'
Danny Johnson
45+1'
R. HuttonOwn goal
51'
Angus MacDonald
56'
R. Hepburn-Murphy← J. Wakeling
56'
B. Gladwin← E. Iandolo
71'
J. Maddox← I. Hutchinson
71'
C. Wilkinson← L. Gordon
78'
M. Roberts← T. Shade
85'
D. James-Taylor← D. Johnson
90+4'
E. Monthe

Possession

56%Swindon

Shots

13Swindon

Pass accuracy

53%Swindon

Statistics

SwindonWalsall
Overview
56%Possession44%
13Total Shots11
4Corners6
9Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots11
3On Target2
3Off Target5
7Blocked4
8Inside Box6
5Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
348Total Passes271
241Accurate Passes162
69%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

League Two: Swindon Town 1–2 Walsall

Walsall beat Swindon Town 2-1 in League Two on December 26, 2022.

Goals: E. Iandolo (33'), R. Hutton (45+1' o.g.), E. Monthe (90+4').

Swindon Town controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.