Swindon Town 0–1 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shrewsbury

H. Chapman 34'

2/6/2021

League One · Round 28The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Swindon Town38%

×Draw28%

Shrewsbury34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.17

Swindon Town

1.25

Shrewsbury

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 152 away

1.10

creates per match

0.86

1.48

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.10

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.48

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

66%

Swindon Town or Shrewsbury

72%

Draw or Shrewsbury

62%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

17%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

71%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

36%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

13%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

69%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

33%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

53%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.10 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Swindon Town scores more

38%

level

28%

Shrewsbury scores more

34%

Swindon Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

B. Pitman

Swindon Town · F

7.3

Match Events

34'

H. Chapman↳ C. Main

41'

T. Curran← C. Masterson

56'

Taylor Curran

62'

S. Twine← J. Lyden

73'

Hallam Hope

73'

D. Davis← S. Goss

73'

R. Pyke← H. Chapman

74'

T. Omotoye← J. Garrick

74'

C. Missilou← H. Hope

87'

D. Edwards← S. Whalley

89'

D. Udoh← C. Main

90'

Brett Pitman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonShrewsbury

Overview

45%Possession55%

6Total Shots5

4Corners3

13Fouls18

Shots

6Total Shots5

0On Target2

3Off Target1

3Blocked2

4Inside Box2

2Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

343Total Passes411

195Accurate Passes290

57%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls18

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1