Shrewsbury 3–3 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Swindon Town

D. Edwards 56'

M. Millar 16'

A. Pierre 11'

M. Smith 90+3'

H. Hope 61'

Joel Grant 43'

11/14/2020

League One · Round 12Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shrewsbury41%

×Draw25%

Swindon Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.36

Shrewsbury

1.52

Swindon Town

1.36

Shrewsbury creates 12% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 30 away

1.14

creates per match

1.40

1.32

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Swindon Town

1.40

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Swindon Town

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

66%

Shrewsbury or Swindon Town

75%

Draw or Swindon Town

59%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

20%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

78%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

45%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

20%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

74%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

39%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

55%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Swindon Town defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.52

Swindon Town attack 1.40 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

41%

level

25%

Swindon Town scores more

34%

Shrewsbury at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

H. Hope

Swindon Town · F

8.0

Match Events

11'

16'

24'

27'

33'

43'

56'

57'

59'

61'

83'

86'

88'

90+3'

M. Smith↳ H. Hope

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburySwindon

Overview

35%Possession65%

10Total Shots15

4Corners1

18Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots15

3On Target4

4Off Target7

3Blocked4

4Inside Box7

6Outside Box8

Passing

35%Possession65%

284Total Passes536

181Accurate Passes430

64%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2