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Swindon Town vs Scunthorpe — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
J. Davison 85' (pen), 70'
H. McKirdy 58'
2/12/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 32The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Swindon Town55%
×Draw24%
Scunthorpe22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.76
Scunthorpe
1.02

Swindon Town creates 73% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 64 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.65
Scunthorpe
0.83

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.22
Scunthorpe
1.88

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Scunthorpe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
78%
Swindon Town or Scunthorpe
76%
Draw or Scunthorpe
45%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
30%
Scunthorpe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
83%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
52%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
26%
Scunthorpe 1+ goals
64%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
27%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
71%
Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.65 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Swindon Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Swindon Town scores more
55%
level
24%
Scunthorpe scores more
22%

Swindon Town at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. WollacottSwindon TownSwindon Town · G
8.9

Match Events

32'
Ben Gladwin
35'
R. Aguiar← B. Gladwin
56'
Ross Millen
58'
H. McKirdy↳ E. Iandolo
69'
T. Sinclair← A. Beestin
70'
J. Davison↳ J. Tomlinson
80'
R. Pyke← S. Burns
80'
H. Bunn← J. Nuttall
85'
J. DavisonPenalty
86'
J. Mitchell-Lawson← H. McKirdy
88'
R. East← L. Barry
90+4'
Jai Rowe

Possession

54%Swindon

Shots

24Swindon

Pass accuracy

52%Swindon

Statistics

SwindonScunthorpe
Overview
54%Possession46%
24Total Shots13
8Corners3
6Fouls11
Shots
24Total Shots13
9On Target7
6Off Target2
9Blocked4
10Inside Box6
14Outside Box7
Passing
54%Possession46%
405Total Passes342
304Accurate Passes236
75%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
7Saves6
Discipline
6Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Swindon Town vs Scunthorpe

Swindon Town beat Scunthorpe 3-0 in League Two on February 12, 2022.

Goals: H. McKirdy (58'), J. Davison (70', 85' pen).

Swindon Town controlled possession (54%) and registered 24 shots to 13.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.