Scunthorpe 1–3 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Swindon Town

R. Loft 48' (pen)

H. McKirdy 88'

B. Gladwin 68'

J. Payne 57' (pen)

8/7/2021

League Two · Round 1Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe31%

×Draw26%

Swindon Town43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.42

Scunthorpe

1.17

Swindon Town

1.42

Swindon Town creates 21% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 139 away

0.89

creates per match

1.49

1.35

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Swindon Town

1.49

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Swindon Town

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

57%

Scunthorpe or Swindon Town

74%

Draw or Swindon Town

69%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

13%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

69%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

33%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

11%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

76%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

41%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

42%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Swindon Town defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Swindon Town attack 1.49 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

31%

level

26%

Swindon Town scores more

43%

Swindon Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Loft

Scunthorpe · F

7.7

Match Events

30'

J. Hallam← T. ONeill

46'

R. Watson← T. Bannatyne-Billson

48'

R. LoftPenalty

57'

J. PaynePenalty

59'

68'

77'

78'

80'

R. Crichlow← K. Kessler

85'

H. Parsons← B. Gladwin

88'

H. McKirdy

90'

Tyreece Simpson

90+2'

R. East← H. McKirdy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeSwindon

Overview

37%Possession63%

11Total Shots17

6Corners4

20Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots17

4On Target8

3Off Target4

4Blocked5

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box11

Passing

37%Possession63%

229Total Passes411

139Accurate Passes309

61%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls8

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2