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Swindon Town vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Salford City
Salford City
2/10/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 32The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 158+ matches

Swindon Town41%
×Draw26%
Salford City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.41
Salford City
1.25

Swindon Town creates 13% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 158 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.61
Salford City
1.32

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.19
Salford City
1.20

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
67%
Swindon Town or Salford City
74%
Draw or Salford City
59%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
19%
Salford City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
76%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
41%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
17%
Salford City 1+ goals
71%
Salford City 2+ goals
36%
Salford City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
55%
Salford City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.19 · 158 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.61 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Salford City attack 1.32 + Swindon Town defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swindon Town scores more
41%
level
26%
Salford City scores more
33%

Swindon Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Swindon Town 1–1 Salford City

Swindon Town and Salford City drew 1-1 in League Two on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.