Salford City 2–1 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Swindon Town

10/22/2024

League Two · Round 13The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 155+ matches

Salford City40%

×Draw26%

Swindon Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.30

Salford City

1.42

Swindon Town

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 158 home / 155 away

1.40

creates per match

1.45

1.15

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Salford City

1.40

Swindon Town

1.45

allows per match

Salford City

1.15

Swindon Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

66%

Salford City or Swindon Town

74%

Draw or Swindon Town

60%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

19%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

76%

Salford City 2+ goals

41%

Salford City 3+ goals

17%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

73%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

37%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

54%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.15 · 158 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Swindon Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Swindon Town attack 1.45 + Salford City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Salford City scores more

40%

level

26%

Swindon Town scores more

34%

Salford City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff