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Swindon Town vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
CANC
00:00
Salford City
Salford City
3/24/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 42The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Swindon Town40%
×Draw24%
Salford City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.60
Salford City
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.62
Salford City
1.55

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.48
Salford City
1.58

finishing

Swindon Town+0.24scores more
Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
64%
Swindon Town or Salford City
76%
Draw or Salford City
60%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
20%
Salford City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
80%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
47%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
22%
Salford City 1+ goals
78%
Salford City 2+ goals
45%
Salford City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
52%
Salford City (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.48 · 14 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.62 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Salford City attack 1.55 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Swindon Town scores more
40%
level
24%
Salford City scores more
36%

Swindon Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Swindon Town host Salford City

March 24, 2020: Swindon Town take on Salford City in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Swindon Town host Salford City at The County Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.