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Swindon Town vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
4/20/2021League OneLeague One · Round 43The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Swindon Town28%
×Draw26%
Portsmouth46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.10
Portsmouth
1.50

Portsmouth creates 36% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 134 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.09
Portsmouth
1.34

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.65
Portsmouth
1.10

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
54%
Swindon Town or Portsmouth
74%
Draw or Portsmouth
72%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
11%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
67%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
30%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
10%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
78%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
44%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
37%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.09 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Swindon Town defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Swindon Town scores more
28%
level
26%
Portsmouth scores more
46%

Portsmouth at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swindon Town vs Portsmouth

Swindon Town beat Portsmouth 3-1 in League One on April 20, 2021.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.