Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Portsmouth vs Swindon Town — League One 2018

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
E. Harrison 64' (pen)
R. Curtis 8'
2/9/2021League OneLeague One · Round 20Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Portsmouth56%
×Draw22%
Swindon Town22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.97
Swindon Town
1.16

Portsmouth creates 70% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 23 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.72
Swindon Town
1.30

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.01
Swindon Town
2.22

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
78%
Portsmouth or Swindon Town
78%
Draw or Swindon Town
44%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
33%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
86%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
58%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
31%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
69%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
32%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
72%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + Swindon Town defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.97

Swindon Town attack 1.30 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Portsmouth scores more
56%
level
22%
Swindon Town scores more
22%

Portsmouth at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
C. MissilouSwindon TownSwindon Town · M
7.6

Match Events

8'
R. Curtis↳ J. Marquis
45'
Jack Payne
59'
E. Harrison← M. Harness
59'
G. Byers← J. Marquis
64'
E. HarrisonPenalty
67'
L. Brown← C. Daniels
78'
P. Caddis← R. Hunt
78'
T. Omotoye← H. Hope
83'
S. Twine← J. Payne
90+2'
H. White← A. Cannon

Possession

58%Portsmouth

Shots

16Portsmouth

Pass accuracy

55%Portsmouth

Statistics

PortsmouthSwindon
Overview
58%Possession42%
16Total Shots9
5Corners4
14Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots9
7On Target0
5Off Target5
4Blocked4
9Inside Box4
7Outside Box5
Passing
58%Possession42%
529Total Passes375
381Accurate Passes221
72%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

League One: Portsmouth 2–0 Swindon Town

Portsmouth beat Swindon Town 2-0 in League One on February 9, 2021.

Goals: R. Curtis (8'), E. Harrison (64' pen).

Portsmouth controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.