Swindon Town 3–3 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Morecambe

W. Kokolo 74'

C. Austin 35', 5'

C. Smith 86'

A. Fairclough 21'

J. Adams 15'

4/27/2024

League Two · Round 46The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Swindon Town49%

×Draw24%

Morecambe27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.19

Swindon Town

1.69

Morecambe

1.19

Swindon Town creates 42% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 93 away

1.65

creates per match

1.17

1.22

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.65

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.22

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

73%

Swindon Town or Morecambe

76%

Draw or Morecambe

51%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

26%

Morecambe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

82%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

50%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

24%

Morecambe 1+ goals

70%

Morecambe 2+ goals

33%

Morecambe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

65%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.65 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Swindon Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Swindon Town scores more

49%

level

24%

Morecambe scores more

27%

Swindon Town at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

C. Austin

Swindon Town · F

8.7

Match Events

5'

C. Austin↳ S. McGurk

15'

J. Adams↳ C. Smith

21'

A. Fairclough↳ C. Brown

35'

C. Austin↳ F. Blake-Tracy

46'

Conor McCarthy

58'

J. Larsson← A. Fairclough

62'

Z. Elbouzedi← J. McGregor

62'

U. Godwin-Malife← H. Hunt

63'

D. Devoy← S. McGurk

67'

Y. Songo'o← N. Khumbeni

68'

R. Evans← J. Bycroft

71'

A. Drinan← P. Glatzel

74'

W. Kokolo↳ D. Devoy

80'

J. Davenport← O. Threlkeld

80'

C. Rooney← J. Adams

81'

F. Rawson← D. Tutonda

86'

C. Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonMorecambe

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots17

7Corners7

5Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots17

5On Target6

4Off Target6

4Blocked5

10Inside Box13

3Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

436Total Passes413

336Accurate Passes326

77%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1