Morecambe 2–2 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Morecambe

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Swindon Town

E. Walker 80'

J. Taylor 31'

C. Austin 57' (pen)

D. Kemp 12'

9/23/2023

League Two · Round 9Mazuma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Morecambe35%

×Draw25%

Swindon Town39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MorecambeExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.42

Morecambe

1.34

Swindon Town

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 139 away

1.24

creates per match

1.49

1.34

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Morecambe

1.24

Swindon Town

1.49

allows per match

Morecambe

1.34

Swindon Town

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw

61%

Morecambe or Swindon Town

75%

Draw or Swindon Town

65%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+

16%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals

74%

Morecambe 2+ goals

39%

Morecambe 3+ goals

15%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

76%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

41%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)

48%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.24 + Swindon Town defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Swindon Town attack 1.49 + Morecambe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Morecambe scores more

35%

level

25%

Swindon Town scores more

39%

Swindon Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Kemp

Swindon Town · F

8.3

Match Events

12'

D. Kemp↳ J. Young

31'

J. Taylor↳ T. Bloxham

33'

54'

55'

55'

57'

C. AustinPenalty

64'

T. Shade← T. Uwakwe

65'

R. Hepburn-Murphy← J. Young

77'

J. Davenport← J. Taylor

77'

F. Rawson← J. Connolly

77'

D. Tutonda← J. Senior

77'

77'

78'

80'

90+6'

90+4'

J. Cain← G. McEachran

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MorecambeSwindon

Overview

33%Possession67%

16Total Shots13

9Corners4

11Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots13

4On Target5

7Off Target5

5Blocked3

9Inside Box12

7Outside Box1

Passing

33%Possession67%

288Total Passes606

197Accurate Passes518

68%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls6

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

Match Recap: Morecambe vs Swindon Town

Morecambe and Swindon Town drew 2-2 in League Two on September 23, 2023.

Goals: D. Kemp (12'), J. Taylor (31'), C. Austin (57' pen), E. Walker (80').

Swindon Town controlled possession (67%) and registered 13 shots to 16.

The match was played at Mazuma Stadium in Morecambe, Lancashire.

Morecambe vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Morecambe vs Swindon Town