Swindon Town 2–4 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Mansfield Town

4/7/2023

League Two · Round 40The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Swindon Town39%

×Draw26%

Mansfield Town35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.28

Swindon Town

1.37

Mansfield Town

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 158 home / 136 away

1.61

creates per match

1.38

1.19

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.61

Mansfield Town

1.38

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.19

Mansfield Town

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

65%

Swindon Town or Mansfield Town

74%

Draw or Mansfield Town

61%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

18%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

75%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

40%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

16%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

72%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

37%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

53%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.19 · 158 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.61 + Mansfield Town defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.37

Mansfield Town attack 1.38 + Swindon Town defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Swindon Town scores more

39%

level

26%

Mansfield Town scores more

35%

Swindon Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff