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Mansfield Town vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 2
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
10/29/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 17One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Mansfield Town43%
×Draw25%
Swindon Town32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.53
Swindon Town
1.30

Mansfield Town creates 18% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 155 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.64
Swindon Town
1.45

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.16
Swindon Town
1.43

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
68%
Mansfield Town or Swindon Town
75%
Draw or Swindon Town
57%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
21%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
78%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
45%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
20%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
73%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
37%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
57%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.16 · 134 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.64 + Swindon Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Swindon Town attack 1.45 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
43%
level
25%
Swindon Town scores more
32%

Mansfield Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Mansfield Town 2–5 Swindon Town

Swindon Town beat Mansfield Town 5-2 in League Two on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.