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Swindon Town vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
L. Montsma 74'
11/24/2020League OneLeague One · Round 14The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Swindon Town32%
×Draw27%
Lincoln42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.16
Lincoln
1.37

Lincoln creates 18% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 156 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.10
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.48
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
58%
Swindon Town or Lincoln
73%
Draw or Lincoln
68%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
13%
Lincoln wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
69%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
32%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
11%
Lincoln 1+ goals
75%
Lincoln 2+ goals
40%
Lincoln 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
43%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.10 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swindon Town scores more
32%
level
27%
Lincoln scores more
42%

Lincoln at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
L. MontsmaLincolnLincoln · D
8.0

Match Events

28'
Matthew Smith
43'
Tom Broadbent
50'
Mathieu Baudry
52'
Dion Donohue
59'
Akinwale Odimayo
65'
C. McGrandles← A. Scully
74'
L. Montsma
81'
J. Payne← A. Grant
87'
T. Eyoma← R. Gotts
90'
James Jones

Possession

43%Swindon

Shots

10Swindon

Pass accuracy

46%Swindon

Statistics

SwindonLincoln
Overview
43%Possession57%
10Total Shots7
6Corners5
13Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots7
3On Target2
3Off Target5
4Blocked0
5Inside Box1
5Outside Box6
Passing
43%Possession57%
349Total Passes470
211Accurate Passes329
60%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls14
5Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

League One: Swindon Town 0–1 Lincoln

Lincoln beat Swindon Town 1-0 in League One on November 24, 2020.

Goals: L. Montsma (74').

Lincoln controlled possession (57%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.