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Lincoln vs Swindon Town — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
M. Rogers 59'
J. Grant 26' (pen)
B. Pitman 44'
J. Garrick 2'
2/23/2021League OneLeague One · Round 31LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lincoln49%
×Draw24%
Swindon Town27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.69
Swindon Town
1.19

Lincoln creates 42% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 30 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.49
Swindon Town
1.40

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Swindon Town
1.90

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
73%
Lincoln or Swindon Town
76%
Draw or Swindon Town
51%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
26%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
82%
Lincoln 2+ goals
50%
Lincoln 3+ goals
24%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
70%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
33%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
65%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Swindon Town defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.69

Swindon Town attack 1.40 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lincoln scores more
49%
level
24%
Swindon Town scores more
27%

Lincoln at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. GrantLincolnLincoln · M
8.2

Match Events

2'
J. Garrick↳ D. Thompson
12'
Conor McGrandles
19'
Matt Palmer
26'
J. GrantPenalty
44'
B. Pitman
46'
R. Hunt← D. Conroy
56'
A. Edun← C. Bramall
57'
Akinwale Odimayo
59'
M. Rogers↳ C. McGrandles
74'
Lewis Montsma
77'
J. Jones← C. McGrandles
82'
R. Poole← T. Eyoma

Possession

59%Lincoln

Shots

10Lincoln

Pass accuracy

54%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnSwindon
Overview
59%Possession41%
10Total Shots15
5Corners5
13Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots15
6On Target6
2Off Target5
2Blocked4
5Inside Box7
5Outside Box8
Passing
59%Possession41%
447Total Passes300
342Accurate Passes197
77%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides0

League One: Lincoln 2–2 Swindon Town

Lincoln and Swindon Town drew 2-2 in League One on February 23, 2021.

Goals: J. Garrick (2'), J. Grant (26' pen), B. Pitman (44'), M. Rogers (59').

Lincoln controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.