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Swindon Town vs Harrogate Town — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
3/2/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 36The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Swindon Town46%
×Draw25%
Harrogate Town29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.52
Harrogate Town
1.15

Swindon Town creates 32% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 138 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.61
Harrogate Town
1.11

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.19
Harrogate Town
1.44

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Harrogate Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
71%
Swindon Town or Harrogate Town
75%
Draw or Harrogate Town
54%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
23%
Harrogate Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
78%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
45%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
20%
Harrogate Town 1+ goals
68%
Harrogate Town 2+ goals
32%
Harrogate Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
61%
Harrogate Town (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.19 · 158 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.61 + Harrogate Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Harrogate Town attack 1.11 + Swindon Town defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Swindon Town scores more
46%
level
25%
Harrogate Town scores more
29%

Swindon Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swindon Town vs Harrogate Town

Swindon Town and Harrogate Town drew 1-1 in League Two on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.