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Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
2/3/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 25Exercise Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Harrogate Town34%
×Draw25%
Swindon Town41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harrogate Town
1.31
Swindon Town
1.46

Swindon Town creates 11% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 155 away

creates per match

Harrogate Town
1.19
Swindon Town
1.45

allows per match

Harrogate Town
1.47
Swindon Town
1.43

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw
59%
Harrogate Town or Swindon Town
75%
Draw or Swindon Town
66%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+
15%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals
73%
Harrogate Town 2+ goals
38%
Harrogate Town 3+ goals
14%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
77%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
43%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)
45%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + Swindon Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Swindon Town attack 1.45 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Harrogate Town scores more
34%
level
25%
Swindon Town scores more
41%

Swindon Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Harrogate Town 0–1 Swindon Town

Swindon Town beat Harrogate Town 1-0 in League Two on February 3, 2026.

The match was played at Exercise Stadium in Harrogate.