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Swindon Town vs Chesterfield — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Preview
15:00
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
11/28/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 17County Ground
Big match
41%
Swindon Town
model favours
41%24%35%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Swindon Town41%
×Draw24%
Chesterfield35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.58
Chesterfield
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.64
Chesterfield
1.34

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.55
Chesterfield
1.52

finishing

Swindon Town+0.13scores more
Chesterfield-0.05on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
65%
Swindon Town or Chesterfield
76%
Draw or Chesterfield
59%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
20%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
79%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
47%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
21%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
77%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
42%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
54%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.52 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.64 + Chesterfield defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chesterfield attack 1.34 + Swindon Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swindon Town scores more
41%
level
24%
Chesterfield scores more
35%

Swindon Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches
  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Swindon Town
Balanced
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
53%PossessionBiggest gap60%
71%Pass accuracy78%
12.6Shots12.3
1.50xG1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Swindon TownChesterfield

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Swindon Town
2
Draws
4
Chesterfield
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
1–22–11–01–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LLWL
Chesterfield
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swindon Town vs Chesterfield — Match Preview

Swindon Town face Chesterfield on November 28, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Swindon Town host Chesterfield at County Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.